Tracking Jay Bruce on the All-Time Career Home Run List — 100 Homers

Posted on April 9, 2012 by Nick Doran

Jay Bruce has 100 career home runs.I will be tracking young Reds slugger Jay Bruce’s progress up the ladder of baseball’s most prolific home run hitters. Obviously he has a long way to go before he will start passing Aaron, Ruth and Mays but he has already passed several Hall of Famers. Jay Bruce arrived in the majors at a very young age and started hitting a lot of home runs while most of his classmates were still working their way through the minors. This gives him a nice head start on the home run charts and gives him a chance to rack up some impressive totals before he hangs up his cleats.

My goal is to fill this project with lots of forgotten feats, legendary lore, obscure trivia, biographical sketches, vintage pictures, fascinating statistics and anything else I can excavate from the vaults of history regarding home runs and the players that hit them over the last 143 years of baseball seasons come and gone.

I encourage each of you to contribute as well. If you know any anecdotes regarding the players and feats we will encounter it would be great if you could share them here in the comments section below each post. If you have any photos of Jay Bruce or the other players involved please send them to me (nddoran at yahoo dot com) or post them here. If you would like to do some research or develop your own interesting contributions then by all means feel free to join in the fun. I am always looking for contributors to this site.

This project will be a lot of work for me and I will do my best to keep up with it throughout the season. It should be lots of fun too.

OK. Let’s get started…

Jay Bruce began this 2012 season sitting on exactly 100 home runs, which tied him with 7 other players for 772nd place on the all-time list of the game’s best home run hitters.

Other players with exactly 100 career home runs:

Jay Bruce passes Bruce Bochte on the career home run list.Bruce Bochte — 1974-1986 Angels, Indians, Mariners, A’s. Bochte boycotted the entire 1983 season as a personal protest over rising player salaries. He believed that money was destroying the game he loved. Bochte is now an avowed agnostic and an ecologist who is working to “save the Mother Earth from humankind’s destructive ways.” Dusty Baker is the only person from his baseball career that Bochte maintains contact with. Makes sense.

 

 

Jay Bruce passes Augie Galan on the career home run list.Augie Galan — 1934-49, 5 teams.  Galan was the first player in baseball history to hit a home run from both sides of the plate in a game. He made the All Star team 3 times, led the league in Stolen Bases twice and in Runs once. In 1935 he got 748 plate appearances and never grounded into a double play — although he did hit into a triple play. It took him 16 years and 5937 ABs to hit the same number of homers that Jay Bruce hit in 5 years and 1851 ABs.

 

 

 

Jay Bruce passes Mike Jacobs on the career home run list.Mike Jacobs — 2005-Present, 5 teams. Hit three-run homer in first at-bat. Hit 32 homers for the Marlins in 2008. Suspended for HGH in 2011.

 

 

 

 

Jay Bruce passes John Kruk on the career home run list.John Kruk — 1986-95 Padres, Phillies, White Sox. Kruk made the All Star team in 1991, 1992 and 1993. In his 1993 appearance at the Midsummer Classic, he had a memorable at bat when he flailed wildly at 98 mile per hour fastballs from Seattle Mariners pitcher Randy Johnson. In October 1987, Kruk lived in a house in New England with two roomates: Roy Plummer, who was a high school friend, and Jay Hafer, who was an acquaintance of Plummer’s. They socialized and partied together, with Plummer almost always picking up the check.  Kruk didn’t know it, but Plummer was funding the group’s lifestyle by committing armed robberies and Hafer was his getaway driver. The FBI told Kruk of his roommates’ criminal activities during spring training in 1988, confronting him before batting practice with a photograph of Plummer taken during a bank robbery. According to the FBI, Plummer believed that Kruk had turned him in to the police, and Kruk lived in fear of reprisal until Plummer was arrested seven months later. Kruk has stated that stress from the episode harmed his performance that season. In 1995, in a game at Baltimore’s Camden Yards stadium, Kruk singled then announced his retirement while standing on first base, taking himself out of the game never to play again.

Jay Bruce passes Cody Ross on the career home run list.Cody Ross — 2003-Present, 5 teams. Hit three home runs in a game in 2006. Was NLCS MVP in 2010 after hitting two home runs off Roy Halladay in game one, then another off Roy Oswalt in game two.

 

 

 

Jay Bruce passes Duke Sims on the career home run list.Duke Sims — 1964-74, 5 teams. Lefty-hitting platoon catcher.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jay Bruce passes Randy Velarde on the career home run list.Randy Velarde — 1987-2002, 4 teams. Turned the 11th unassisted triple play in baseball history for the A’s against the Yankees.  Preceded Derek Jeter as the Yankee’s starting shortstop.

 

 

 

Jay Bruce is currently #129 on the list of active players for career home runs. He has a good chance of breaking into the top 100 this season. Currently Troy Tulowitzki and Mike Napoli are tied at #99 with 122 home runs. Jay will likely have to hit at least 25-30 homers to break into the Top 100 club because some of the 28 active hitters ahead of him will be cranking balls over the walls nearly as fast as Jay.

Every single one of the hitters ahead of Bruce on the list are older than his age of 25 years. The closest younger player to Jay is Justin Upton, who despite being 5 months younger actually reached the majors earlier and has 2402 plate appearances to Jay’s 2080 PAs, which is an extra half season’s worth of chances to hit home runs. Upton currently has 91 home runs and is in 851st place.

There are not any other young sluggers close enough to threaten to pass Bruce this year or next. Giancarlo Stanton is 22 years old and has hit 56 homers in his first two seasons, so he could pose a threat down the road. Maybe Bryce Harper could catch Bruce eventually because he is expected to reach the majors this season at the age of 19. Scouts say he has tremendous power and it would not be surprising to see him hit a lot of home runs very quickly.

Only two other Cincinnati Reds reached the 100 homer mark faster than Jay Bruce and both of them are Hall of Famers. One was Johnny Bench and the other was Frank Robinson.

15,898 men have come to the plate at least once in the major leagues since 1869. Of those only 7261 have actually hit a home run. So Jay Bruce has already passed 15,127 players, 6490 of which have hit at least one home run. So if you look at it that way Bruce is a lot closer to the top of the list than he is to the bottom! More than half of the men that have played in the big leagues never hit a single home run in their entire careers. That is amazing even when you realize that many of them were pitchers and may not have gotten too many at-bats in the designated hitter era.

Dave Eggler was the player who had the most plate appearances in the major leagues without ever hitting a single home run. He batted 2594 times and never circled the bases — not even an inside-the-park home run. He played from 1871-85 and had a career batting average of .274 which is actually pretty good. His OBP was only .288 because he took a meager 49 walks over that 14 year period. He was never hit by a pitch in his entire career.

Follow me on Twitter @BlazingFastba11 and tweet me some Jay Bruce facts and pics.

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Stat Spotlight: Erase Batting Average From Your Mind

Posted on March 27, 2012 by Nick Doran

From our earliest exposure to baseball as children we were told the best measure of a player’s hitting ability is his batting average. The ultimate goal of a batter is to get a hit right? And batting average was the best way to see how often the batter did his job.

Batting Average OBP SLGOur hero’s batting average was always printed on the back of his baseball card. When we watched a game on TV they always flashed his batting average on the screen as he came to the plate. If a player had a .300 batting average he was a star. Batting average was one of the Triple Crown statistics and the player with the highest batting average won the Batting Title.

When we played Little League ball we were always concerned about keeping our batting average as high as possible. The kids with the best batting averages were the best players right?

Everything we were told was wrong. It turns out batting average is actually not a very good way to evaluate a player. It simply omits too much information to be useful, especially when you consider there are much better measurements readily available. Some of these better statistics make so much common sense you will wonder why you ever cared about batting average.

What if store prices were like batting averages? Imagine this scenario:Batting Average OBP SLG

I walked into a store and picked up a pack of bubble gum. I went to the cash register to pay. The cashier said “That will be 9 coins, sir.” I said “Nine coins? What is the price?” Cashier: “Do you want the gum or not? Just give me the nine coins.” I gave him nine pennies, but he told me those were not coins. “Pennies are not coins?” I said. “Nope” he replied. I handed over nine nickels and walked out of the store blowing bubbles.

That sounds pretty ridiculous doesn’t it? But batting average looks at hits just like that cashier looked at coins.

Look at this picture and tell me what you see:

Pocket Change coins represent batting average, OBP SLGA.) 4 silver-colored coins and a piece of copper

B.) 5 coins

C.) 65 cents and a piece of copper.

D.) 66 cents

All of those answers would be 100% correct, but one of them conveys more information than the others. Option A is like Batting Average, Option B is like On-base Percentage (OBP), Option C is like Slugging Percentage (SLG) and D is like On-base Plus Slugging (OPS).

There are several types of coins and each one has a different value. So a cashier that treated them all the same would be foolish.

There are several types of hits and each one has a different value. So a hitting statistic that treated them all the same would be foolish.

Just like the cashier that treated all coins the same and thought pennies were not coins, batting average treats all hits the same, and walks (which are almost as good as singles) don’t count at all.

We all know there are several different types of hits with different values. Walks, singles, doubles, triples and homers are not the same. Some are worth much more than others. So a hitting statistic needs to factor in this extra information.

On-base percentage improves upon batting average by giving the hitter proper credit for walks and hit-by-pitches (HBP). Essentially it shows how often a batter successfully avoids making an out.

Slugging percentage improves upon batting average by giving the hitter proper credit for getting more than one base on a hit. It is Total Bases divided by at-bats. So a double is twice as valuable as a single, a triple is 3x as valuable as a single and a home run is 4x as valuable as a single.

OBP and SLG are much more accurate in terms of correlating well with the actual number of runs scored in real major league baseball games. Batting average is only moderately successful at predicting which teams will score the most runs. Sometimes a team that has an inferior team batting average will score significantly more runs than a team with a much better batting average. OBP is much more accurate while SLG is even more accurate. I won’t bore you with the actual math here.

The best way to predict how many runs a team will score over the course of a season is to add the OBP and SLG together to creat the OPS statistic. OPS is extremely accurate. So if you are a General Manager of a baseball team you would be wise to stock your batting lineup with players that have high OPS scores without regard for their batting averages.

So now we can come back to the question I asked in the first paragraph, is a hitter’s ultimate goal to get a hit? No, it is not. His ultimate goal is to score a run. His primary goal is to get on base without making an out. His secondary goal is to get as many bases as possible while not making an out. The hitter’s job is to keep the lineup turning over without spending any of his team’s limited supply of outs.

Ichiro Suzuki has a high batting average and a low OPSNow that we know there are better statistics for evaluating hitters is there any reason to continue using batting average? Well, batting average can tell you what type of hitter a player is. Is he a player that creates runs by hitting singles, hitting for power or taking walks? In the end it doesn’t really matter how he creates runs as long as he creates them at a high rate, but it can be interesting to make the distinction anyway. In terms of identifying and evaluating the best hitters there is no good reason for using batting average.

The danger with batting average is that it can mislead people into thinking players with good batting averages are more valuable than they really are. There have been many players with high career batting averages that were not very productive hitters. On the flip side there have been many players with very low career batting averages that were highly efficient at putting runs on the scoreboard.

Rank Batting AVG OPS Rank
1 0.328 Albert Pujols 1.037 1
2 0.326 Ichiro Suzuki 0.791 79
3 0.324 Joe Mauer 0.874 25
4 0.323 Todd Helton 0.971 3
5 0.318 Vladimir Guerrero 0.931 10
6 0.317 Miguel Cabrera 0.950 7
7 0.315 Matt Holliday 0.929 12
8 0.313 Derek Jeter 0.832 51
9 0.312 Manny Ramirez 0.996 2
10 0.312 Ryan Braun 0.933 9
74 0.277 Jim Thome 0.959 4
81 0.275 Ryan  Howard 0.928 14
130 0.243 Adam Dunn 0.876 24

In the chart above, you can see the career stats of several superstar players. The first 10 players are the active career leaders in batting average, the bottom three players have batting averages that are not so good. On the right side of the chart you can see the On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS) scores for each player. As we have seen, OPS is a much more accurate representation of a hitter’s skill than AVG.

Most of the guys in the top 10 for AVG are also good at OPS — but not all of them. You can see that Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter have great batting averages but they are not really all that good at producing runs. Ichiro has hit an incredible .326 for his career but he ranks 79th in OPS. That is not good when you consider there are only 135 players with enough career at-bats to qualify for this list. The problem with Ichiro that is exposed by using stats more accurate than batting average is the fact that Ichiro is only good at one thing — hitting singles. He rarely takes a walk and he has very poor power. How many times have we been told by broadcasters that Ichiro is a great hitter? Way too many. He simply is not a great hitter, he is merely a good hitter.

Now look at the bottom of the chart. Jim Thome is one of the best power hitters of all time and ranks 4th on the list of active OPS leaders, but his batting average is only 74th. Ryan Howard is another highly effective productive run producer with a mediocre batting average.

Adam Dunn Batting Average vs OPSAdam Dunn has a well below average batting average of .243 for his career, but he ranks 24th among all active players in OPS. He creates runs for his team at a far better pace than Ichiro despite hitting nearly 100 points lower in batting average. Dunn takes a lot of walks and hits a lot of  home runs, and that is what puts runs on the scoreboard and wins baseball games. Dunn actually has a higher on-base percentage than Ichiro, which means that Dunn is less likely to make an out each time he comes to the plate than Ichiro. It may seem counter-intuitive at first if you are accustomed to batting average, but it is true nonetheless. Dunn had an absolutely horrific season in 2011, but his career numbers are still far superior to Ichiro’s.

Now we can see that not only is batting average not the best barometer of hitting skill, it can actually mislead fans to the wrong conclusions about certain players. Some players with very low batting averages are better hitters than players with very high batting averages. If walks and extra-base hits are not factored into the analyis then the conclusion is going to be wrong.

In the world of 21st century baseball analysis Batting Average as a statistic has been discredited as a tool for serious discussion of hitting. Continued use of batting average will brand a person as out of touch with the game. If you really want to understand the game it is time to embrace better statistics. In the next article in this Stat Spotlight series we will discuss advanced statistics that are even better and more interesting than the traditional OBP, SLG and OPS stats we discussed here.

 

 

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Predicting the 2012 National League Rookie of the Year

Posted on February 29, 2012 by Nick Doran

The cast of candidates for the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year is not as clear cut as the AL group so the contest is a lot harder to predict. The top-ranked prospects in the NL are every bit as good as the AL prospects but they are not guaranteed a starting role in the major leagues to begin the season. The few rookies that are likely to be starters on Opening Day will have a head start on the future stars that will begin the season in the minors.

1. Yonder Alonso — 1st Baseman — San Diego PadresRookie of the Year Candidate Yonder Alonso 2012

Alonso is likely to be the starter at 1B on Opening Day. He has already played well in the majors for the Reds before being traded to the Padres this winter in the Mat Latos deal. Alonso was blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati or else he would likely have been in the major leagues for two or three years by now. He is ready to produce at a high level right away. Petco Park is a tough place to hit and will hurt his power numbers, but Alonso should still hit for a good batting average and produce lots of doubles.

2. Bryce Harper — Right Fielder — Washington NationalsRookie of the Year Candidate Bryce Harper ROY

Harper is the best prospect in all of baseball, but he might have to wait a while longer before bursting on to the scene as a star player. If he starts the season with the Nationals I would move him up to #1 on this list. It is extremely unusual for 19 year old players to put up strong numbers at that age — even if they go on to Hall of Fame careers. Harper is going to hit a ton of home runs in his career, but can he do it at age 19? He is considered a once-in-a-generation talent but it is asking a lot if you expect him to outperform experienced older players like Yonder Alonso and the others on this list. All that being said, I still would not bet against Bryce Harper using the 2012 ROY trophy to start his collection of MLB awards.

3. Trevor Bauer — Starting Pitcher — Arizona DiamondbacksRookie of the Year Candidate Trevor Bauer 2012

Bauer was expected to battle Tyler Skaggs in Spring Training for the last spot in the Diamondbacks rotation but the team signed Joe Saunders this winter, pushing Bauer and Skaggs to the minors to start the season. I believe Bauer will be up to the majors around June 1st and have an excellent debut season in Phoenix. Bauer is an extremely interesting pitcher and I can’t wait to see him pitch in the big leagues. He is known for his unusual workout methods, extreme long-tossing regimen, unorthodox warm-up throws, his use of pitch tunneling and “effective velocity” and the fact he throws nine different pitches in games.  Scouts worry about his size and his max-effort delivery.

4. Devin Mesoraco — Catcher — Cincinnati RedsRookie of the Year Candidate Devin Mesoraco 2012

Mesoraco is going to split time at catcher with Ryan Hanigan early in the season, but I expect Devin to quickly sieze the starting job and become a near-everyday catcher. Mesoraco is a offensive-minded catcher but he will be at least an average defensive catcher this year and will improve with time. Hanigan is an excellent defensive catcher but Mesoraco’s hitting skills will force the Reds to keep him in the lineup. Manager Dusty Baker prefers veterans and makes it hard for young players to earn playing time, but Devin Mesoraco is not your average young player. Mesoraco may even see some time at DH during interleague games, that is how good of a hitter he is expected to become.

5. Julio Teheran — Starting Pitcher — Atlanta BravesRookie of the Year Candidate Julio Teheran 2012

Teheran is expected to start the season in the minors because the Braves have a very deep rotation with plenty of extra options that would be entrenched in the rotations of most other teams. But that won’t hold Teheran back for too long. He is too good to be left in the minors when he is ready to pitch in the bigs — and he is ready. Once he makes his debut in early June he will be a serious contender for Rookie of the Year. Teheran has been at the top of prospect charts for a a few years now and he projects to be an ace pitcher by all accounts.

6. Zack Cozart — Shortstop — Cincinnati Reds

Similar to Pastornicky, Cozart is going to be the Opening Day starter at shortstop for the Reds. Cozart does not stand out in any particular skill, but he is a good all-around player who fields well, hits for contact with some power and good speed. His OBP could be an issue as he does not take many walks. Don’t be surprised to see him near the top of the Reds batting order in a high-octane offensive environment. In a year without a standout rookie star a solid grinder like Cozart on a playoff-caliber team could snag the ROY.

7. Tyler Pastornicky — Shortstop — Atlanta Braves

Yet another Braves candidate for ROY. The Braves have made habit of producing great rookies including Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel the last couple of years. Pastornicky is likely going to be the starting shortstop on Opening Day. He might not have star potential, but he is definitely talented enough to turn some heads this summer.

8. Shelby Miller — Starting Pitcher — St. Louis CardinalsRookie of the Year Candidate Shelby Miller 2012

Miller is a super prospect without question, however he may not be seen in St. Louis until late in the season. If injuries strike the Cardinals’ rotation then Miller could grab the opportunity and never look back. Miller is regarded by most scouts as the top right-handed pitching prospect in baseball. He has been the Cardinals Minor League Pitcher of the Year the last two seasons. His velocity and stuff lead to stellar strikeout rates and pretty stats, but he reportedly needs more work on the little things like holding runners, backing up bases and pitching IQ. If he does not reach the majors this season he could be number one on this list next year.

9. Drew Pomeranz — Starting Pitcher — Colorado Rockies

Pomeranz may not have the upside of Teheran and Miller, but he is likely to get an earlier opportunity to impress the voters. Pomeranz is a top prospect acquired from the Indians in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade last summer. Coors Field is a tough place for a rookie pitcher to thrive, but Pomeranz has great stuff and a strong enough arm to take on the challenge.

10. Anthony Rizzo — First Baseman — Chicago Cubs

When Rizzo was acquired from the Padres most observers assumed he would move right into the starting lineup for the Cubs. Right now it looks like Bryan Lahair will get the first opportunity and Rizzo will have to wait. Rizzo had fantastic stats in the minors but did not fare well in his short stint in the majors last year. The move to Wrigley Field will surely  make his future brighter as a hitter. Rizzo is still considered a very good prospect and is likely to put some digits on the scoreboard in Chicago after a little more seasoning in the minors.

Plenty of other players like Brett Jackson, Randall Delgado, Tyler Skaggs or Matt Harvey could also make some noise. The NL ROY race is as wide open this year as it has ever been. We know that several future All Stars will make their debuts this season, but which of them will get enough playing time to build up the stats to impress the voters?

Follow me on Twitter @BlazingFastba11 for extra updates and commentary on baseball history, interesting stats and player profiles. All questions will be answered!

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Predicting the 2012 American League Rookie of the Year

Posted on February 28, 2012 by Nick Doran

It takes two things to win the Rookie of the Year Award: talent and opportunity. Most prospects are not given enough playing time in the major leagues to have a realistic shot at the award. If a player has a starting job on Opening Day he is going to have a better chance than a player that gets called up mid-season. But sometimes a player can burst on to the scene late and put on a display that snatches the award from the early-season frontrunner.

The list of AL ROY contenders in 2012 is very strong compared to most years. There is an exciting crop of players that will enter the league this year and will be household names very soon. The pitchers lead the way but there are some powerful hitters that could snatch the award if the pitchers falter.

1. Matt Moore — Starting Pitcher — Tampa Bay RaysRookie of the Year Matthew Moore 2012

Matt Moore is likely to have a spot in the Rays’ rotation to start the season. He is also the most talented player eligible for the award this year. The Rays trust him so much already that they gave him a start in the playoffs last year and he delivered a masterpiece. He is a strikeout machine and is the most eagerly anticipated rookie pitcher since Stephen Strasburg. Moore is so good the Rookie of the Year might not be the only award he wins this year, even the Cy Young Award is a possibility for this precocious young hurler. Fernando Valenzuela is the only pitcher to win both awards in  the same season.

2. Yu Darvish — Starting Pitcher — Texas RangersRookie of the Year Yu Darvish 2012

Even though the 25 year old Darvish is not a prospect he is still eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award. Fellow Japanese leaguer Ichiro Suzuki won the award when he was 28 in 2001. Darvish signed a huge free agent contract to come to America and play for the Rangers this year and is expected to be the best Japanese pitcher yet seen in MLB. His track record, size and stuff are considered far better than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s were when he joined the Red Sox in 2007.

3. Jesus Montero — Catcher/DH — Seattle MarinersRookie of the Year Jesus Montero 2012

Montero was traded from the Yankees to the Mariners for stud pitcher Michael Pineda, which shows just how highly the Mariners think of him. Montero’s defense is not very good yet, but his bat is special. He had a great month of September with the Yankees last year. The move to the tough hitting environment in Seattle shouldn’t hold this excellent hitting prospect down. His bat will stand out anywhere. Montero will see plenty of playing time from day one and will be perfectly situated in the middle of the Mariners batting order.

4. Mike Trout — Outfielder — Los Angeles AngelsRookie of the Year Mike Trout 2012

Trout is a great 5-tool talent, but may begin the season in the minors due to the crowded outfield in LA. When he does reach the majors he will provide an elite combination of speed, contact and power combined with excellent defense. Compare him to Carlos Beltran or Grady Sizemore in their primes. There is debate regarding whether or not Trout actually qualifies for the ROY award due to the time he spent on the Angel’s roster last season. He did not exceed the allowable 130 ABs but his service time may have exceeded the maximum 45 days.

5. Jacob Turner — Starting Pitcher — Detroit TigersRookie of the Year contender Jacob Turner 2012

Turner will battle for a spot in the Tigers’ rotation in Spring Training. If he wins the spot he could challenge for the ROY. Some observers feel Turner has been rushed to the majors by the Tigers much like Rick Porcello was a couple years ago. Turner may need a couple seasons worth of experience before reaching an elite level of performance, but he is still capable of having a breakthrough campaign in 2012. He has a blazing fastball that reaches the upper 90′s on occasion and an excellent curveball as well. He is still working on his other pitches, which he will need if he hopes to become an ace starter.

6. Jarrod Parker — Starting Pitcher — Oakland Athletics

Parker is another future star pitcher who could start the season in the majors. If he is sent back to the minors he won’t be there long. He is now fully recovered from elbow surgery he underwent in the Diamondbacks system before being traded to the A’s in the Trevor Cahill deal and is ready to take the majors by storm in the big pitcher’s park in Oakland.

7. Yoennis Cespedes — Outfielder — Oakland Athletics

Cespedes is a Cuban defector signed as a free agent this winter. He is a wild card in the ROY race because nobody really has a good idea how he will perform against major league competition. He has never played professionally even in the minors yet. He has a ton of talent and all the tools to be a star and he is already 26 years old.

8. Addison Reed — Relief Pitcher — Chicago White Sox

Reed’s candidacy for the Rookie of the Year hinges completely on whether he earns the mantle of Closer in Chicago. The White Sox traded former closer Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays, so there might be an open competition for the role during Spring Training. Matt Thornton is likely the leading candidate, but he failed in the role last year and is left-handed. Almost all closers are right-handed because managers prefer to use tough lefties situationally to retire the toughest left-handed hitters in critical situations in the late innings. Reed is likely to become the closer at some point, but will it be early enough to earn him consideration for ROY? Voters do like to vote for closers if one is available.  Neftali Feliz, Andrew Bailey, Huston Street and Craig Kimbrel are closers who won the award in recent seasons.

There are plenty of other dark horse candidates that could make a surprise appearance on the ROY scene. Injuries could strike veteran players and give unexpected opportunities to some of the talented players in the minor leagues. There are lots of future stars waiting in the wings hoping for their chance to shine.

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Top 300 Prospects in Baseball – February 2012

Posted on February 8, 2012 by Nick Doran

At long last our eagerly awaited list of the best 300 prospects in baseball has arrived! These are the future stars we will be watching for the next decade. The guys at the top of the list are potential All Stars, while the guys a little deeper down are future starters on their MLB teams, and farther down the list are the future utility players and long relievers. Many players that are still in the low minors will work their way up this list in future years.

We will update this list on a regular basis throughout the year. Prospects are like stocks — their performance on the field will make their place on this list go up and down. The list today is just a snapshot in time. As more games are played you will see players rise and fall on this list frequently. It is quite possible for players ranked in the 200s to work their way up to the top 25 as time goes by. Check in frequently to see who is rising and falling!

Who will be at the top of this list next year? Most of the top 50 prospects on this list will graduate to the majors as the 2012 season is played out, which will leave a lot of vacancies near the top. Some of those vacancies will be filled by guys that are further down this list (or off the list altogether), while other vacancies will be filled by players that are drafted or signed in 2012.

Our list is generated by extensive study of the prospects throughout baseball. We go to games, watch videos, talk to scouts, read reports, analyze statistics and make projections. We take everything into consideration, including the opinions of other prospect experts.

Players are graded by their maximum potential (“ceiling”) and their minimum potential (“floor”), their likelihood of achieving their potential and their proximity to the majors. Their health, age, stats, skills and tools are all factored in to the mix.

We feel our rankings are very thorough and among the best in the industry. Unlike our competitors, we refresh our rankings frequently so you have the most up to date projections. Relying on a list that is only published once per year will leave you behind. As fresh information comes pouring in during the playing season we will keep you updated on the prospect landscape all year long.

There are several thousand players in the minor leagues, so making this list is a very difficult accomplishment. Even the players near the bottom of our Top 300 Prospects list are excellent players with a real shot to make it to the big leagues. The players at the top of the list have a chance of making it to the Hall of Fame 20-25 years from now.

Our goal is to identify future stars as early as possible. Players with star potential may rank more highly here than on other lists. Players who are destined to be fringe major leaguers or role players will not rank as highly here as they do on other lists. Those players are valuable to a major league team but nobody gets excited over them. We are not trying to predict which prospects will merely make it to the majors, we are trying to predict which players have a real shot to become impact players in the majors.

You can use these rankings to learn about future stars, to track your favorite player’s chances of becoming a star, to evaluate your team’s prospect pipeline compared to other teams, or to dominate your fantasy baseball league.

Players who are eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2012 are included in this list, even if they have already played in the majors. We did not include Japanese and Cuban players like Yu Darvish and Yoennis Cespedes on this list because they have not played in the minor leagues and are unlikely to do so. They are more akin to free agents than prospects. Darvish would likely have been in the top 10 while Cespedes would have been top 25.

We have included estimated times of arrival in the big leagues for the top 100 ranked players.

For additional commentary on these players consult the Top 10 Prospects List by Team on this site.

Please feel free to share your opinion in the comments after the list. We value your input!

1 Bryce Harper OF Nationals 2012
2 Matthew Moore LHP Rays 2012
3 Mike Trout OF Angels 2012
4 Jesus Montero C Mariners 2012
5 Shelby Miller RHP Cardinals 2012
6 Jurickson Profar SS Rangers 2014
7 Julio Teheran RHP Braves 2012
8 Manny Machado SS Orioles 2014
9 Jameson Taillon RHP Pirates 2014
10 Trevor Bauer RHP Diamondbacks 2012
11 Gerrit Cole RHP Pirates 2014
12 Devin Mesoraco C Reds 2012
13 Dylan Bundy RHP Orioles 2015
14 Nolan Arenado 3B Rockies 2013
15 Anthony Rendon 3B Nationals 2013
16 Tyler Skaggs LHP Diamondbacks 2012
17 Wil Myers OF Royals 2013
18 Jacob Turner RHP Tigers 2012
19 Danny Hultzen LHP Mariners 2012
20 Manuel Banuelos LHP Yankees 2013
21 Martin Perez LHP Rangers 2013
22 Drew Pomeranz LHP Rockies 2012
23 Carlos Martinez RHP Cardinals 2014
24 Jarrod Parker RHP Athletics 2012
25 Miguel Sano 3B Twins 2014
26 TaiJuan Walker RHP Mariners 2014
27 Travis D’Arnaud C Blue Jays 2012
28 Bubba Starling OF Royals 2015
29 Matt Harvey RHP Mets 2012
30 Archie Bradley RHP Diamondbacks 2016
31 Zack Wheeler RHP Mets 2014
32 Christian Yelich OF Marlins 2014
33 Randall Delgado RHP Braves 2012
34 Jean Segura SS Angels 2014
35 Arodys Vizcaino RHP Braves 2012
36 Anthony Rizzo 1B Cubs 2012
37 Gary Brown OF Giants 2013
38 Mike Montgomery LHP Royals 2012
39 James Paxton LHP Mariners 2012
40 Nick Franklin SS Mariners 2013
41 Yonder Alonso 1B Padres 2012
42 Brett Jackson OF Cubs 2012
43 Hak-Ju Lee SS Rays 2013
44 Xander Bogaerts SS Red Sox 2015
45 Michael Choice OF Athletics 2014
46 Gary Sanchez C Yankees 2014
47 Jonathon Singleton 1B Astros 2014
48 Yasmani Grandal C Padres 2012
49 Jacob Marisnick OF Blue Jays 2015
50 Trevor May RHP Phillies 2013
51 Oscar Tavares OF Cardinals 2014
52 Zach Lee RHP Dodgers 2015
53 Francisco Lindor SS Indians 2016
54 Nick Castellanos 3B Tigers 2014
55 Dellin Betances RHP Yankees 2012
56 Joshua Bell OF Pirates 2015
57 Billy Hamilton SS Reds 2014
58 Leonys Martin OF Rangers 2012
59 Jake Odorizzi RHP Royals 2013
60 Wilin Rosario C Rockies 2012
61 A.J. Cole RHP Athletics 2014
62 Casey Kelly RHP Padres 2013
63 George Springer OF Astros 2014
64 Anthony Gose OF Blue Jays 2013
65 Starling Marte OF Pirates 2012
66 Will Middlebrooks 3B Red Sox 2012
67 Javier Baez SS Cubs 2015
68 Kolten Wong 2B Cardinals 2013
69 Brad Peacock RHP Athletics 2012
70 Cheslor Cuthbert 3B Royals 2016
71 Jarred Cosart RHP Astros 2012
72 Tyrell Jenkins RHP Cardinals 2015
73 Robbie Erlin LHP Padres 2012
74 Sonny Gray RHP Athletics 2013
75 Matt Barnes RHP Red Sox 2013
76 Christian Bethancourt C Braves 2014
77 Rymer Liriano OF Padres 2015
78 Drew Hutchison RHP Blue Jays 2013
79 Chad Bettis RHP Rockies 2013
80 Addison Reed RHP White Sox 2012
81 Jed Gyorko 3B Padres 2013
82 Jonathan Schoop SS Orioles 2014
83 Oswaldo Arcia OF Twins 2014
84 Zack Cox 3B Cardinals 2013
85 Nestor Molina RHP White Sox 2013
86 Matt Szczur OF Cubs 2014
87 Eddie Rosario OF Twins 2014
88 Noah Syndergaard RHP Blue Jays 2015
89 Ryan Lavarnway C Red Sox 2012
90 Garin Cecchini 3B Red Sox 2015
91 Wily Peralta RHP Brewers 2012
92 Mike Olt 3B Rangers 2014
93 Jesse Biddle LHP Phillies 2014
94 Allen Webster RHP Dodgers 2013
95 Jeurys Familia RHP Mets 2013
96 Mason Williams OF Yankees 2015
97 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Rays 2016
98 Jose Campos RHP Yankees 2015
99 Joe Panik SS Giants 2013
100 Grant Green OF Athletics 2012
101 Luis Heredia P Pirates
102 Taylor Jungmann RHP Brewers
103 Kaleb Cowart 3B Angels
104 Garrett Richards RHP Angels
105 Liam Hendricks RHP Twins
106 James Darnell 3B Padres
107 Jed Bradley LHP Brewers
108 Dillon Howard RHP Indians
109 Matt Dominguez 3B Marlins
110 Drew Smyly LHP Tigers
111 Deck McGuire RHP Blue Jays
112 Aaron Hicks OF Twins
113 Keyvious Sampson RHP Padres
114 Daniel Norris LHP Blue Jays
115 Tim Wheeler OF Rockies
116 Alex Torres LHP Rays
117 Anthony Ranaudo RHP Red Sox
118 Jose Fernandez RHP Marlins
119 Derek Norris C Athletics
120 C.J. Cron 1B Angels
121 Rougned Odor SS Rangers
122 Vince Catricala 3B Mariners
123 Justin Nicolino LHP Blue Jays
124 Marcell Ozuna OF Marlins
125 Sebastian Valle C Phillies
126 Joe Wieland RHP Padres
127 Dante Bichette 3B Yankees
128 Jenrry Mejia RHP Mets
129 Tyler Thornburg RHP Brewers
130 Corey Spangenburg 2B Padres
131 Andrelton Simmons SS Braves
132 Matt Davidson 3B Diamondbacks
133 Thomas Joseph C Giants
134 Brandon Nimmo OF Mets
135 Stetson Allie RHP Pirates
136 Robbie Grossman OF Pirates
137 John Lamb LHP Royals
138 Mikie Mahtook OF Rays
139 Robert Stephenson RHP Reds
140 Chris Archer RHP Rays
141 David Holmberg LHP Diamondbacks
142 Dillon Maples RHP Cubs
143 Zack Cozart SS Reds
144 Jonathan Pettibone RHP Phillies
145 Brody Colvin RHP Phillies
146 Trey McNutt RHP Cubs
147 Nathan Eovaldi RHP Dodgers
148 Kyle Gibson RHP Twins
149 Taylor Lindsey 2B Angels
150 Daniel Corcino RHP Reds
151 Jacob Realmuto C Marlins
152 Trayce Thompson OF White Sox
153 Blake Swihart C Red Sox
154 Tyler Pastornicky SS Braves
155 Alexander Colome RHP Rays
156 Junior Lake SS Cubs
157 Chad James LHP Marlins
158 Edward Salcedo 3B Braves
159 Adeiny Hechevarria SS Blue Jays
160 Reese Havens SS Mets
161 Joe Benson OF Twins
162 Alex Meyer RHP Nationals
163 Trevor Story SS Rockies
164 Tony Wolters SS Indians
165 Jake Sisco RHP Indians
166 Josh Vitters 3B Cubs
167 Domingo Santana OF Astros
168 Sean Gilmartin LHP Braves
169 Bryce Brentz OF Red Sox
170 Kyle Crick RHP Giants
171 Jose Iglesias SS Red Sox
172 Phillippe Aumont RHP Phillies
173 Tim Beckham SS Rays
174 Brian Goodwin OF Nationals
175 Scooter Gennett 2B Brewers
176 Ryan Wheeler 3B Diamondbacks
177 Adonys Cardona RHP Blue Jays
178 Cody Buckel RHP Rangers
179 Nick Delmonico 3B Orioles
180 John Hellweg RHP Angels
181 Tyler Saladino SS White Sox
182 A.J. Pollock OF Diamondbacks
183 Colin Cowgill OF Athletics
184 Asher Wojciechhowski RHP Blue Jays
185 Edwar Cabrera LHP Rockies
186 Trevor Rosenthal RHP Cardinals
187 Freddy Galvis SS Phillies
188 Delino DeShields 2B Astros
189 Pat Corbin LHP Diamondbacks
190 Chris Reed LHP Dodgers
191 Rob Rasmussen LHP Marlins
192 Logan Schafer OF Brewers
193 Aaron Sanchez RHP Blue Jays
194 Robbie Ross LHP Rangers
195 Brian Dozier SS Twins
196 Wilmer Flores SS Mets
197 Joe Terdoslavich 1B Braves
198 Jaff Decker OF Padres
199 Matt Adams 1B Cardinals
200 Jason Esposito 3B Orioles
201 Alfredo Silverio OF Dodgers
202 Lance Lynn RHP Cardinals
203 Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF Mets
204 Tyler Matzek LHP Rockies
205 Kyle McPherson RHP Pirates
206 Sammy Solis LHP Nationals
207 Matthew Purke LHP Nationals
208 Neftali Soto 1B Reds
209 Neil Ramirez RHP Rangers
210 Levi Michael SS Twins
211 Michael Taylor OF Athletics
212 Chris Carter 1B Athletics
213 Guillermo Pimentel OF Mariners
214 Francisco Martinez 3B Mariners
215 Eduardo Sanchez RHP Cardinals
216 Jonathan Villar SS Astros
217 Charles Blackmon OF Rockies
218 Francisco Peguero OF Giants
219 Chris Withrow RHP Dodgers
220 LJ Hoes OF Orioles
221 Parker Bridwell RHP Orioles
222 Jiwan James OF Phillies
223 Andrew Susac C Giants
224 Cesar Puello OF Mets
225 Kyle Parker OF Rockies
226 Hudson Boyd RHP Twins
227 Christian Colon SS Royals
228 Yordy Cabrera SS Athletics
229 Chris Parmelee 1B Twins
230 Drew Vettleson OF Rays
231 Casey Crosby LHP Tigers
232 Michael Fulmer RHP Mets
233 Corey Dickerson OF Rockies
234 Dan Vogelbach 1B Cubs
235 Mason Hope RHP Marlins
236 Tyler Austin 3B Yankees
237 James Baldwin OF Dodgers
238 Austin Hedges C Padres
239 Brad Boxberger RHP Padres
240 Ravel Santana OF Yankees
241 Jeff Locke LHP Pirates
242 Jordany Valdespin SS Mets
243 Tom Milone LHP Athletics
244 Cito Culver SS Yankees
245 Nick Hagadone LHP Indians
246 Aaron Westlake 1B Tigers
247 Taylor Green 3B Brewers
248 Wellington Castillo C Cubs
249 J.R. Murphy C Yankees
250 Dan Klein RHP Orioles
251 Nick Maronde LHP Angels
252 Tony Sanchez C Pirates
253 Enny Romero LHP Rays
254 Austin Romine C Yankees
255 Henry Owens LHP Red Sox
256 Heath Hembree RHP Giants
257 Maikel Franco 3B Phillies
258 Cody Scarpetta RHP Brewers
259 Josh Lindblom RHP Dodgers
260 Slade Heathcott OF Yankees
261 Andrew Chafin LHP Diamondbacks
262 Alex Wimmers RHP Twins
263 Kelvin Herrera RHP Royals
264 Joc Pederson OF Dodgers
265 Didi Gregorius SS Reds
266 Adam Eaton OF Diamondbacks
267 Bobby Borchering 3B Diamondbacks
268 Elier Hernandez OF Royals
269 Angel Sanchez RHP Dodgers
270 Roman Mendez RHP Rangers
271 Vicmal De La Cruz OF Athletics
272 Joe Ross RHP Padres
273 Brandon Jacobs OF Red Sox
274 Yordano Ventura RHP Royals
275 Brandon Guyer OF Rays
276 Angelo Songco OF Dodgers
277 Tanner Scheppers RHP Rangers
278 Eric Surkamp LHP Giants
279 Tanner Bushue RHP Astros
280 Mike Foltynewicz RHP Astros
281 Junichi Tazawa RHP Red Sox
282 Alex Liddi 3B Mariners
283 Reymond Fuentes OF Padres
284 Josh Sale OF Rays
285 Kent Matthes OF Rockies
286 Chen-Chang Lee RHP Indians
287 Todd Frazier SS Reds
288 Brett Oberholtzer LHP Astros
289 Andy Oliver LHP Tigers
290 Brad Miller SS Mariners
291 Tyler Anderson LHP Rockies
292 Ronny Rodriguez SS Indians
293 Eugenio Suarez SS Tigers
294 Bobby Bundy RHP Orioles
295 Chris Dwyer LHP Royals
296 Marc Krauss OF Diamondbacks
297 Elvis Araujo LHP Indians
298 Chris Owings SS Diamondbacks
299 Michael Ynoa RHP Athletics
300 Zach Von Rosenberg RHP Pirates

Don’t forget to leave a comment and check back often for updates of the Top 300 list and many more interesting baseball features throughout the season.

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Oakland Athletics Top 10 Prospects of 2012

Posted on February 3, 2012 by Nick Doran

Jarrod Parker baseball card Athletics A'sThe Oakland Athletics take top prize in our ranking of every minor league prospect system in baseball. The A’s have a long line of star youngsters coming soon along with unprecedented depth throughout their developmental ladder. Four of their top five prospects are pitchers, all of whom will fit perfectly in the A’s rotation. As we saw with the Padres system, most of the Oakland prospects were not drafted by the club. The big Gio Gonzalez trade with Washington gave the A’s a sudden huge infusion of talent with four of the top twelve prospects arriving all at once. The Trevor Cahill trade with the Diamondbacks brought in the new #1 and #8 prospects. Billy Beane has a long history of trading off soon-to-be expensive stars to reload the prospect pipeline. He stayed true to his strategy this winter.

1 Jarrod Parker RHP
2 Michael Choice OF
3 A.J. Cole RHP
4 Brad Peacock RHP
5 Sonny Gray RHP
6 Grant Green OF
7 Derek Norris C
8 Colin Cowgill OF
9 Michael Taylor OF
10 Yordy Cabrera SS

Jarrod Parker was the key treasure in the Trevor Cahill trade. Parker has been an elite pitching prospect for several years. His development was sideline for a year by Tommy John surgery in 2010, but he has recovered fully and is now once again ready to dominate. He has a blazing fastball, plus slider and quality changeup. He just needs to fine-tune his command before coming up to Oakland mid-2012. He could be an ace.

Michael Choice baseball card AthleticsMichael Choice is a ball-thumping corner outfielder with star potential. The power is obvious, so are the strikeouts. He is going to hit home runs but unless he improves his contact rate his batting average is going to be a problem. Still a couple years away from the majors.

A.J. Cole was the best player the A’s received for Gio Gonzalez. He has a plus fastball and curveball but need to develop another pitch or two to avoid going to the bullpen. He has excellent control and rarely walks batters. Has ace upside but is very likely to be at least a #2 starter in the majors.

Brad Peacock is another pitcher involved in the Gonzalez trade. He was only a 41st round draft pick in 2006 but has steadily advanced his prospect stock to where he is a pitcher every team in the majors would want to put in their rotation. Probably not going to be a star but rather a reliable mid-rotation guy.

Sonny Gray was one of the few guys actually drafted by the Athletics, with their 1st round pick in 2011. He only has two reliable pitches — a fastball and a curveball. He is working on his changeup and that is going to be the key to his future. He needs at least 3 pitches to succeed as a starter, otherwise he will be a solid reliever. Not much star potential here.

Grant Green was once a top shortstop prospect. Now that he has been moved to centerfield his value takes a hit. His bat regressed badly in the minors in 2011, but he had a great stint in the Arizona Fall League to get back on the radar. Could see the majors in 2012.

Derek Norris is a catcher acquired in the Gio Gonzalez deal. He has a good arm behind the plate but his defense and ability to handle pitchers still need seasoning. He has a lot of power with the bat but struggles badly to make contact. He is not ready for the big leagues yet. Has the potential to be a solid regular.

Colin Cowgill was acquired from Arizona as part of the Trevor Cahill trade. Not very toolsy but gets good results anyway. Likely to be a 4th outfielder or part-time starter.

Michael Taylor was once a hot prospect. He was drafted by the Phillies then later traded to the Blue Jays in the Roy Halladay deal. Then he was quickly swapped to the Athletics for Brett Wallace. He was considered a 5 tool prospect with a star in his future, but he has so far failed to live up to the hype. He is ready for the majors and this could be his last chance. Could still become a good starting player for the Athletics, don’t give up on him yet.

Yordy Cabrera is a shortstop in the low minors. He has a ton of potential but so far has not been able to translate his athletic ability into skills.

The Athletics have several other future major leaguers in their system. Chris Carter and Tom Milone will contribute this year while others could see their prospect stock rise rapidly in 2012. Don’t bet against Billy Beane pulling off some more trades to bolster the system either. A few of the free agents the A’s signed this winter might have been brought in with the idea of trading them off midseason to garner fresh prospects.

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San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects of 2012

Posted on February 3, 2012 by Nick Doran

Yonder Alonso baseball card PadresThe second-best farm system in all of baseball belongs to the San Diego Padres. Most of the Padres’ top prospects were drafted by other teams and acquired by the Padres in trades. The Friars decided a couple years ago to dismantle the major league club in a rebuilding process which is now almost complete. The big league club is going to start harvesting the rapidly ripening crop of prospects this season. The Padres traded Anthony Rizzo this winter to the Cubs, but he would have ranked either #1 or #2 on this list.

1 Yonder Alonso 1B
2 Yasmani Grandal C
3 Casey Kelly RHP
4 Robbie Erlin LHP
5 James Darnell 3B
6 Jed Gyorko 3B
7 Rymer Liriano OF
8 Keyvius Sampson RHP
9 Corey Spangenburg 2B
10 Joe Wieland RHP

First baseman Yonder Alonso was acquired from the Reds in the Mat Latos blockbuster. Alonso is fully developed and ready to step right into the starting lineup for the Padres this year. His line-drive oriented bat is well suited to life in spacious Petco Park. He will hit for a good batting average, take a lot of walks and hit a lot of doubles. Alonso is a smart, professional hitter who is likely to adjust to major league pitching quickly. His power production in the minors was suppressed due to a hamate injury, which has caused some pundits to underestimate his power potential. His defense at first base is more than adequate.

Yasmani Grandal baseball card PadresAlso acquired from the Reds in the Latos trade was catcher Yasmani Grandal. He projects as one of the better hitting catchers in the majors. Grandal has an all-around bat with good contact rates and good power. His defense is not spectacular but he will develop into a plus defensive catcher. He is likely to get the call to the big club in mid to late 2012. Has All-Star potential in his prime.

Opinions are diverse on Casey Kelly. Some see him as a potential ace while others see a fringe major league reliever. He was the biggest name coming to the Padres in the Adrian Gonzalez trade along with Rizzo. When the Red Sox drafted him in the first round it was unclear whether he would be a shortstop or a pitcher. He started out playing both ways before eventually switching to pitching full time. He is behind on his development compared to other pitchers his age as a result. Kelly has very good mechanics, which results in good control and command. His stuff is good but not awesome. Since his delivery is already refined he may not have too much projection left, leaving his upside as a likely mid-rotation starting pitcher. Kelly’s father and uncle both played in the major leagues.

Southpaw Robbie Erlin was acquired in the Mike Adams trade with the Rangers. He throws a plus curveball and a plus changeup, but his fastball is slow and straight. Luckily he can locate those pitches in the strikezone with pinpoint control. He is able to get a lot of strikeouts even though he cannot blow hitters away. He is a fly ball pitcher, so Petco Park will be a great home for him. He is ready for the big leagues right now.

James Darnell is a defensively-challenged third baseman with a bat that will hit for power and on-base percentage. He is ready for the majors but Chase Headley is in his way.

Jed Gyorko is another 3B prospect. He has a better glove than Darnell, but he is still only average at best defensively. He has a good contact-oriented bat but has demonstrated little power so far. At 23 years of age he needs to take a step forward if he wants to be a major league starter, otherwise he is looking at a career as a utility man.

Rymer Liriano is a raw, toolsy outfield prospect with a lot of talent and subpar results. He gets mixed reviews from prospect mavens. He seems to be steadily learning the game and could be a real breakout candidate for 2012.

Keyvius Sampson baseball card PadresKeyvius Sampson is a pitcher with good stuff and good stats. He might have the highest upside of all the hurlers on this list. He has an injury history and is not very big. Bit of a wild card here.

There are quite a few very solid prospects beyond this list. The Padres are likely to graduate several of these prospects to the majors this season, but they have plenty of guys left that will keep them near the top of our system rankings again next season.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Top 10 Prospects 2012

Posted on February 3, 2012 by Nick Doran

Jameson Taillon baseball card PiratesThe #3 ranked Pittsburgh Pirates have two fantastic pitching prospects that will both rank in our overall top 10 prospects in baseball. After those two future stars the Pirates have a large crop of promising prospects. There is lots of depth in this organization. The Pirates are definitely looking at a bright future.

1 Jameson Taillon RHP
2 Gerrit Cole RHP
3 Joshua Bell OF
4 Starling Marte OF
5 Luis Heredia RHP
6 Stetson Allie RHP
7 Robbie Grossman OF
8 Kyle McPherson RHP
9 Jeff Locke LHP
10 Tony Sanchez C

Jameson Taillon was the #2 overall pick in the 2010 draft out of high school. He has overpowering stuff and is likely to be an ace pitcher in a couple years. He has a blazing fastball, a plus curveball and a plus slider. He has a changeup but the Pirates development strategy deters pitchers from throwing changeup in the low minors. Taillon has excellent control. He has the full package. He just needs seasoning before bursting into the big leagues.

Gerrit Cole baseball card PiratesGerrit Cole was the #1 overall pick in the 2011 draft. Cole has a powerful 4 seam fastball and a 2-seamer as well. His slider is an awesome strikeout pitch and his quality changeup keeps the hitters from cranking up for the fastball. He is going to overpower a lot of hitters in the majors. He just needs to gain consistency in his mechanics. The Pirates are likely to give him plenty of seasoning in the minors until they feel they are ready to compete for the NL Central title. Cole and Taillon will form a formidable punch at the front of the Pirate rotation for many years.

Josh Bell lasted until the 2nd round of the 2011 draft only because he made it known he was going to go to college, but the Pirates took him anyway and convinced him to sign. He could turn out to be a huge steal. He is a switch-hitting outfielder with an exciting bat. He hits for power and average. He might not provide a ton of defensive value. Signed late and did not play in the minors in 2011.

Outfielder Starling Marte is an excellent fielder and hits for contact and some power. His plate discipline needs work (he is Dominican so what else would you expect? They like to swing the bat). He is fast and will steal some bases. Definitely has some star potential.

Luis Heredia is a big kid with a strong arm and a blazing fastball. He has two other pitches that are often good but he has a ton of learning to do. He is a young, long-term project who could be a star some day, or you may never hear his name again.

Stetson Allie is a future hard-nosed closer with an electric fastball.

Robbie Grossman is a speedy outfielder with a good enough bat to become a 4th outfielder in the majors at a minimum. He still has the potential to become a regular.

Kyle McPherson will have a career as a borderline starter and solid reliever. Could hit Pittsburgh in 2012.

Tony Sanchez will be a major league catcher, but his profile has diminished after being considered a possible impact player a couple years ago.

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Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects of 2012

Posted on February 2, 2012 by Nick Doran

Travis D'Aarnaud baseball card Blue JaysThe Toronto Blue Jays’ #4 rated system is marked by outstanding depth. While the Jays don’t have any guys that profile right now as superstars, they do have plenty of guys who are going to be quality starting players in the major leagues. Deeper in the minors they have some projects that could develop into elite prospects in time. Blue Jays fans have a lot to look forward to in coming seasons.

1 Travis D’Arnaud C
2 Jacob Marisnick OF
3 Anthony Gose OF
4 Drew Hutchison RHP
5 Deck McGuire RHP
6 Noah Syndergaard RHP
7 Daniel Norris LHP
8 Justin Nicolino LHP
9 Adeiny Hechevarria SS
10 Adonys Cardona RHP

Travis D’Arnaud was obtained from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay trade a few years back. He projects to be a solid if not stellar defensive catcher, his one flaw being a fairly weak throwing arm. His bat will make him one of the better-hitting catchers in the majors. He hits to all fields and has some power, but strikeouts could be an issue. He is a better all-around catcher than J.P. Arencibia already, so the Blue Jays will need to make a decision soon. Both are too good to be a backup, so one is likely to be traded for a player that can help the team at another position. D’Arnaud is almost ready for the majors and should get the call some time in 2012.

Jacob Marisnick baseball card Blue JaysJake Marisnick is an excellent all-around outfield prospect who projects to be an above average major league starter. He is a line drive hitting machine who hits to all fields. He is a good defender who could play centerfield well, but is likely to end up in rightfield due to Anthony Gose being an even better centerfielder. Marisnick’s power should be good but not great. Has yet to play in the upper minors and hence is still a couple years away from Toronto.

Anthony Gose will be an excellent defensive centerfielder with blazing speed, that much is not in question. He has a ton of athletic ability but is still very raw in terms of baseball skills. His bat has potential but he has a long way to go before his hitting skills will get him to the majors. He could be a star, or he could end up as a defensive replacement. 2012 will go a long way to determining his future.

Drew Hutchison has good but not great stuff. The key for him is his excellent command and pitchability. His results (stats) are far better than his stuff would indicate. He projects as a middle rotation starter who retires hitters with guile and deception rather than overpowering them.

Deck McGuire in many ways is similar to Hutchison. McGuire has strong command, good movement and changes speeds well. He is not going to blow hitters away, but he is going to get them out. Another good starting pitcher but not an ace.

Noah Syndergaard is a big pitcher with a strong fastball and a good changeup. He lacks breaking pitches of any quality at this time. He has high upside as a starting pitcher if he can develop another quality pitch, otherwise he could be an impact reliever.

Lefthander Daniel Norris was the Blue Jays’ 2nd round pick in 2011. He was good enough to be a 1st round pick but many teams were worried he would not sign because of his strong desire to play college baseball. Obviously he did end up signing, so the Jays got a steal. He had a great year in short season ball. He has three plus pitches and is very athletic. He needs lots of seasoning however.

Justing Nicolino is yet another excellent pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system. Like Norris, Nicolino is a lefty but does not have quite as much upside, although he is still likely to be very good. The Jays are going to have a top notch rotation in a few years.

Adeiny Hechevarria is a fantastic glove man at shortstop and that alone will get him to the majors. He can’t hit though. He might not ever hit. If he can develop into even a mediocre hitter he will be the starter in Toronto eventually, otherwise he will be a role player.

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St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Prospects of 2012

Posted on February 2, 2012 by Nick Doran

Shelby Miller baseball card CardinalsThe St. Louis Cardinals are at #5 in our ranking of every farm system in baseball. They have several potential ace pitchers in various stages of development. There are also some hitting stars on the rise and some bullpenners that are already in the majors but are still rookie-eligible. The Cards’ system is a bit top-heavy in that they have 6 premium prospects (including one elite prospect) along with 4  good prospects and not much in the way of depth beyond the top 10.

1 Shelby Miller RHP
2 Carlos Martinez RHP
3 Oscar Tavares OF
4 Kolten Wong 2B
5 Tyrell Jenkins RHP
6 Zack Cox 3B
7 Trevor Rosenthal RHP
8 Eduardo Sanchez RHP
9 Lance Lynn RHP
10 Matt Adams 1B

Shelby Miller is a future ace pitcher. He has a blazing fastball and has great command of it. His plus curveball has a sharp drop. His changeup has good movement in addition to the change of speed. His arm action disguises his offspeed pitches well. Miller is likely to start the season in AAA but will be ready to step into the Cardinals’ rotation as soon as an opening arises. Potential Cy Young winner in his prime.

Carlos Martinez basebal card Cardinals20  year old Carlos Martinez is another righty with ace potential, but he is still in the low minors and won’t be seen in St. Louis for a couple years at least. He has a great fastball and premium raw stuff. He has a very odd leg plant and recoil follow-through after releasing the ball, which could lead to injury. His stuff is as good as anyone in the minors. Still needs to learn to control it and gain consistency.

Oscar Taveras is a line drive hitting outfielder who will definitely hit for high batting averages. If he develops some power he could be a star. Still young and in the low minors.

Second baseman Kolten Wong was the Cardinals’ 1st round pick in 2011. He is another line drive hitter, but he is less likely to ever develop any power. Having played college ball his game is fairly well developed already so he will not need much time in the minors. He could see the big leagues in 2013.

Tyrell Jenkins is yet another righthander with ace upside in the Cards’ system. He has a very strong, live arm but he still needs to learn how to pitch. He does not have any plus pitches yet, but he will. Several years from the majors yet.

Zack Cox hits for good contact, but lack of power and subpar defense profile him as a role player in the majors.

Trevor Rosenthal has a huge fastball, strikeout slider and is developing a changeup. He is another project righty with a lot of seasoning to do in the minors, but could be a very good pitcher.

Cardinals fans are already familiar with bullpen arms Eduardo Sanchez and Lance Lynn. Sanchez served as the Cardinals’ closer for awhile in 2011 and should remain a valuable reliever in the majors. Lynn also served in the Cards’ bullpen in 2011. He wields a blazing fastball and is a groundball pitcher. On most teams he would be a starting pitcher but is likely to remain a reliever in St. Louis because the Cardinals just have so many better options for the rotation slots.

Matt Adams has put up some excellent numbers in the minors, but most scouts don’t see him as an impact hitter in the majors. Should have a major league career but is likely to have his ups and downs.

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